H L Chandrashekhar 
Will the BJP lose much badly in the 2024 election like Congress lost in the 2014 election?
New Delhi: Irrespective of the result of the 2024 election, one can safely say that BJP would not meet the fate of the Congress of 2014. Former prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda also had Rajiv Ghandhi s same image Tech knowledge more than Modi but stepped down on his own decision even BJP supported.
In 2014, Congress lost 162 seats and won just 44 seats. Even if BJP loses the 2024 election (the chances of BJP’s loss are very less at this point), it will be above 180 seats. There are the following reasons for this –
- The second term of UPA had lost its steam in just one year. By 2010, Manmohan Singh Government was a sitting duck. So many corruption cases surfaces – CWS scam, Neera Radia tape controversy, Adarsh Society Scam, 2 G scam, Colgate scam, etc. I don’t see such scams surfacing in the second tenure of the Modi Government.
- Manmohan Singh’s Government was known for not taking decisions and there was policy paralysis in India. Now Modi is known for taking decisive decisions and in his second term, he has taken many bold decisions – Article 370, building Ram temple, CAA, etc.
- Even though Manmohan Singh was the PM, Sonia Gandhi was the power center and the National Advisory Council (NAC) was more powerful than the Indian Cabinet. In the Modi era, Modi is firmly in control of the party and Government. He has no challenger in his party.
- During the UPA 2 era. the idea was to promote Rahul Gandhi and many people say that Rahul Gandhi would have become the PM in the mid of UPA 2 but the plan was abandoned when the image of the Government took a hit due to many scams. Rahul Gandhi didn’t want the bad image of UPA and once he tore up a Government ordinance in public. Even though Manmohan Singh was the sitting PM, Rahul Gandhi was the unofficial PM candidate of Congress. There is no such crisis in the BJP of 2022.
- The UPA Government was very unpopular in the UPA 2 era. The Anna movement also helped to create an anti-Congress mood in India. Even though the opponent Modi hates Modi but Modi has a huge fan following among Indian voters and he is the most popular leader of India.
- The Congress was facing a strong challenge in 2014 in form of Modi. Modi was CM of Gujarat for over a decade and was the leader of a national party. Today Congress has no such strong leader and other opposition parties are limited to their states.
BJP will remain the largest political party in 2024 (in terms of MPs in Lok Sabha) irrespective of the result of the election. As of now, BJP is the favorite to win the election but anything can happen in politics.
